ACUS11 KWNS 070143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070143=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma to West-Central Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 15...18...

Valid 070143Z - 070315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 15, 18 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercell threat, with isolated tornadoes, continues this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Complex mode of convection has evolved from northeast
OK into west-central MO. Strong low-level warm advection is noted
along this corridor, coincident with the LLJ. VWP data from
INX/SGF/EAX all exhibit 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2, and
ample buoyancy was noted on the 00z soundings from SGF/TOP/OUN. OUN
was particularly noteworthy with 2100 J/kg MLCAPE and negligible
inhibition. Latest radar data depicts at least two long-lived
supercells over northeast OK, embedded within a broader mixed-mode
elongated convective band. This activity will continue to
spread/develop northeast, along with an attendant risk for tornadoes
and perhaps some large hail.

..Darrow.. 03/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ie76TYiLSwgQnTa2g1ZoPv-n5Gm6Nmj7U8fSdSpCo9LEtWVG9nQltnNRLuKMPOc0kQmUd3Tb= 8MA9cMllTHptm8Bv9c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 35679631 38559447 38709303 37289384 35569533 35679631=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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