ACUS11 KWNS 070112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070112=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-070315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska into western Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 16...

Valid 070112Z - 070315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 16 continues.

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms to the north of a cold front will
continue to pose a large to very large hail threat for the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms developing to the north of a
surging cold front have produced hail stones ranging from 1 to 2
inches over the past hour. Although radar presentation of these
cells has been somewhat meager, the 00z OAX sounding sampled 1250
J/kg MUCAPE above the frontal surface and an elongated hodograph
characterized by effective bulk shear on the order of 50 knots. This environment is very favorable for splitting supercells capable of
producing large/very large hail. Per latest RAP mesoanalysis
estimates, this environment extends eastward into western IA, and
additional cells are noted developing within the post-frontal regime
across eastern NE/western IA. These trends suggest that the threat
for large hail is likely increasing, though it remains somewhat
unclear how long storm mode will remain discrete/semi-discrete
downstream. Regardless, additionally watch issuance may be needed in
the coming hours to address this threat if the developing cells
remain highly efficient at hail production.

..Moore.. 03/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6qIaJQvtj_PVLqArcSRRBN_5Ae0CzcxZEiy20d0xY6ElNCmYHFbjqIm1W4_xPsQPorz19_qqx= 98sLlxDPeOShlfObAU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 39919673 39909722 40159761 40669771 42049748 42329722
42469693 43269450 43189395 42979361 42679350 42289374
41969408 40889529 40059641 39919673=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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