ACUS11 KWNS 062324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062323=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into central Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 16...

Valid 062323Z - 070130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 16 continues.

SUMMARY...Convective coverage is expected to gradually increase over
the next couple of hours with early stages of additional
thunderstorm development noted along a surging cold front.
Consequently, the overall severe threat will likely increase heading
into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development along the front has so far
been lackluster - likely owing to a combination of undercutting from
the cold front and residual capping across the warm sector. However,
latest GOES one-minute imagery shows a cluster of deepening cumulus
across far southeast NE/southwest IA just ahead of the front, and
cooling cloud-top temperatures with an uptick in lighting counts is
noted across northeast KS. These signs suggest that the severe
threat remains in place across WW 16 and an uptick in strong/severe thunderstorm coverage is possible in the coming hours. Strong
along-boundary flow coupled with the surging nature of the front
casts considerable uncertainty on whether storms will remain rooted
along the boundary or will be undercut quickly to the cool side of
the boundary. Regardless, severe hail may be possible within
initially semi-discrete storms before a transition to primarily a
severe wind and tornado threat occurs - especially if storms can
remain rooted on the warm side of the boundary. This appears most
probable across southwest to central IA downstream of the ongoing
cumulus development and where recent CAM output has suggested
pre-frontal cells will be possible within a buoyant and strongly
sheared environment.

..Moore.. 03/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Pl0tJxsk92Le0TcmY3p9URjuAS_yOiQp6rpkHmoG5DKUQJYxHdYaGbX7arUESGJCDO3LnAnD= WKUiPuB5-w0pkq-VG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38509704 38379742 38389777 38539804 38639812 38739813
39509724 40579589 40969552 41249527 41459517 41709498
41889480 42059438 42099397 42059354 41929324 41649305
41289299 40909325 40309407 39689501 39169601 38509704=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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