ACUS11 KWNS 062147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062147=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-070015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Kansas into western/central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 062147Z - 070015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk should gradually increase over the next
few hours. While timing is uncertain, a watch may eventually be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection is gradually deepening
within a zone of low-level warm advection over southwestern MO and
southeastern KS -- along the southeastern periphery of earlier
thunderstorm clusters. Here, boundary-layer dewpoints are increasing
into the lower 60s amid pockets of diurnal heating in cloud breaks.
While a low-level warm layer and related inhibition (evident in
earlier nearby soundings and forecast profiles) limits confidence in thunderstorm evolution/maturation -- especially given weak
large-scale forcing for ascent -- the continued destabilization may
favor gradual intensification through the afternoon into this
evening. If thunderstorms can become surface-based, around 40-50 kt
of effective shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
would support supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging
winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes.=20

Given the uncertainty on timing/evolution of the severe risk in this
corridor, a watch is not expected in the near-term, though
convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4f9gbclouhY4wz5st09Hyk4zYQ2zgyqBm9u02EYO2KH_E--o9RMR6uH0cQ2q-mKsxn1r8U8qo= NVNMjWrRW19h6v75eg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37929582 38539555 39269474 39649414 39739362 39609309
39309281 38809271 38019311 37219385 36939426 36929468
37069564 37479583 37929582=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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