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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0149

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 6 20:11:34 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 062011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062010=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-062215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0149
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

    Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan...northern Indiana...and
    northeast Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 062010Z - 062215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms are possible through the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has been gradually
    intensifying along a warm front in far southwestern Lower MI this
    afternoon, with additional deepening cumulus extending
    west-southwestward across northern IN into northeastern IL. Here,
    lower 60s dewpoints and diurnal heating has yielded a corridor of
    weak surface-based buoyancy along the southern edge of widespread
    clouds. Despite the weak buoyancy, strong deep-layer wind field
    (sampled by regional VWP) is yielding an elongated hodograph with
    enhanced low-level curvature. This environment may promote some
    storm organization this afternoon, including small clusters and
    brief/transient supercell structures. Locally damaging winds and
    perhaps a tornado risk will accompany the stronger storms that
    evolve. The overall severe risk may remain too isolated for a watch,
    though trends are being monitored.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4D03DshnptTkVDLzkeA-VCQchntItNQwHdP6BOmZ80rORPrctF9UXX54nax2OMdkxD8foW727= ekWeIxB7yFrf19WWYw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 42008798 41978736 42018679 42298611 42508548 42508505
    42368463 41968443 41648459 41328490 41088542 40918596
    40738680 40658733 40658787 40678834 40898879 41138907
    41638905 41948858 42008798=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)