ACUS11 KWNS 060731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060731=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-060930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northern OK into south-central/southeast
KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14...

Valid 060731Z - 060930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14
continues.

SUMMARY...At least a localized severe threat may continue through
the early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...An earlier tornadic supercell has recently weakened
east of Wichita, due to increasing CINH and decreasing low-level
moisture quality with northeastward extent. Farther southwest, a
small bowing segment has evolved from an earlier supercell cluster
across north-central OK. The nocturnal increase in CINH should
eventually lead to a weakening trend with this cluster as well, but
given its current level of organization and very strong low-level
flow noted on the KVNX and KICT VWPs, localized severe gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado may accompany this cluster as it moves into south-central KS. Gusty to locally severe winds will also continue
to be possible with this cluster even if it begins to decay.=20

Otherwise, the environment remains conditionally favorable for
supercells, but increasing low-level stability should tend to
mitigate this threat with time. However, some threat for hail and/or
a brief tornado cannot be ruled out if any additional supercells can
evolve within the ongoing convection.

..Dean.. 03/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8C7qyNidLEHSI9chixgeMHr-x_Cuacqe3ADPCVbMgdX96qMfMcH9VAkliBqjlZM74dESlsf4v= JRi-qVfOpDaYf33r04$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36459839 37149791 38059734 38349673 38439625 38349592
37989575 37189614 36499683 36249738 36269801 36459839=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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