ACUS11 KWNS 060455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060455=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-060630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...South Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14...

Valid 060455Z - 060630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across the southeastern half
of ww014 over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell that developed over western OK
earlier this evening has advanced into Grant county OK, and will
soon cross the border into Sumner county KS. This supercell has a
history of producing tornadoes. Latest surface data suggests the air
mass just downstream of this storm is a bit cooler than across
northern OK, but slow moistening is occurring across southern KS as
the warm front gradually lifts north. VWP data at VNX and ICT
exhibit very strong 0-3km SRH so this supercell should continue to
track northeast, but some weakening is expected due to the
aforementioned cooler boundary layer. Given the strength of the LLJ,
a few thunderstorm clusters are expected to evolve across south
central KS into the early morning hours. While some tornado risk
exists with this storm as it tracks northeast, current thinking is
hail/wind will become the primary concerns as updrafts should
gradually decouple and become more elevated in nature.

..Darrow.. 03/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QIMbs5AyjCbmB9CduZVsYMbg89DMDzIF5RGSyVyQkRArggOL8HGSoepgq1woPZoUYWOPEEe4= GSnxYm_UyBdLuK1fgA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 37949794 37949612 36999650 37019832 37949794=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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