949
AXNT20 KNHC 080806
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to
support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and
eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will
pulse to gale-force until around sunrise this morning. Seas of 8
to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N20W to the coast of Brazil near 03S45W.
Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
south of 06N between 15W and 54W.
...GULF OF Mexico...
A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with
moderate seas across the Gulf waters S of 25N, with fresh to
strong trades occurring through the Florida Straits confirmed by
earlier scatterometer data. Slight seas are noted offshore
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over much of the
northern and NW Gulf coast as a front slowly moves across the
south-central United States, as well as over parts of western
Florida. Some areas of dense fog are present across much of the
Gulf coastal waters as reported by recent in-situ observations.
For the forecast, a weak cold front just inland over Texas will
move into the NW Gulf coastal waters later today and stall before
washing out. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending
southwestward from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf
through midweek next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to
fresh E to SW winds basin-wide, pulsing to between fresh and
strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the
evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the NE Gulf. Seas
will be slight to moderate through Wed. Another, but stronger cold
front may impact the NW Gulf Wed night, moving across the basin
through Thu night with increasing winds and seas behind it.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.
An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean,
with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern
Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are blowing through the
Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds are in lee of Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to
near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean.
Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the south-central Caribbean,
and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central parts of the
basin. Moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across
the Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over
the Greater Antilles.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High
and a Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force until
around sunrise today. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse
near the Windward Passage with fresh winds near the Gulf of
Honduras for the remainder of the weekend. Large easterly trade-
wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas
near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1025 mb
high pressure located just SE of Bermuda near, and another 1026
mb near high pressure situated N of the Madeira Islands near
35N19W. Fresh to locally strong trades are prevalent S of 25N and
W of 45W, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are N
of 20N and E of 20W to the coast of Africa due to a tight pressure
gradient, with associated seas of 7 to 10 ft N of 15N and E of
28W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 7 ft are elsewhere
S of 27N. Between the highs, 1020 mb low pressure is positioned
just N of the area near 35N28W with a stationary front reaching SW
to along 31N between 39W and 45W. Fresh to strong winds are just N
of 31N behind the boundary, with associated rough seas seeping
just S of 31N now between 40W and 45W. Across the remainder of the
waters N of 27N, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4 to 6
ft seas prevail under ridging extending between the highs.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 25N through mid-week, reaching strong north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold
front. That front may move offshore by early Thu, weakening and
slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu
night.
$$
Lewitsky
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)