ACUS11 KWNS 212015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212014=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-212245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212014Z - 212245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage early
this afternoon from southeast MS into south AL, along and ahead of a southward-sagging cold front. Some recovery has occurred this
afternoon to the north of the initial wind shift, with the leading
edge of the deeper cold and stable air still across parts of central
MS/AL, to the north of the developing storms.=20

MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear are
conditionally favorable for organized storm structures, including
supercells. However, aside from weakly confluent flow near the
front, forcing for ascent is expected to remain generally
weak/nebulous across the region through the afternoon. The modest
ascent and a warm layer based around 700 mb (as observed on the 18Z
LIX sounding) may result in only slow intensification of the
developing storms and generally isolated severe coverage, though a
couple splitting supercells and/or small bowing segments may evolve
with time. If developing convection can mature and be sustained
near/south of the front, then some threat for isolated hail and
damaging winds could evolve this afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 02/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rfQiWlBbfRzH87AaC6S3B5iPS81jAcbSRNsJ8PFJEVH_FXuiDlzqhW6kK1m1A4GZbrSBX85v= RXbZeXW56bBkgv4PaA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30528527 30258543 30358727 30388854 30518978 31338973
31828712 32138527 31888511 31648512 31168514 30528527=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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