ACUS11 KWNS 211009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211009=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-211245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Areas affected...central/southern parts of MS/AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211009Z - 211245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop this morning from
initially elevated cells over parts of central Mississippi, as they
spread east-southeast along a quasi-stationary front.

DISCUSSION...As-advertised by the 00Z ECMWF/HREF and 06Z REFS
guidance, convective development has been increasing along the MS
portion of a quasi-stationary front in the Deep South. A pronounced
low-level thermodynamic gradient across the boundary, along with
moderate southwesterlies, has aided in isentropic ascent to the cool
side of the front. Recent HRRR guidance has been quite insistent on
a sustained rotating storm or two along the front, as cells shift
into AL through mid-morning. Deep-layer shear is certainly favorable
for mid-level rotation. However, weak to modest mid-level lapse
rates should curtail hail growth to an extent. But with the presence
of rich low-level moisture south of the front, there is concern that
a near-boundary supercell could eventually attain surface-based
character beyond a severe hail threat. However, low-level winds are
expected to become slightly more veered from the west-southwest
towards and after daybreak, which may help modulate the overall
threat.

..Grams/Guyer.. 02/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7bhV3tPJylZPytDwDySk2mNHq3pqo6OI69HfPgH_pi0ENP02Nq2wXIH3csBmSyMoELBqCYQuu= hHK1OMfErWdvqUTf2A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32758922 32918789 33078681 33148532 32378517 32088556
31958612 31758866 31679050 32069050 32758922=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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