ACUS11 KWNS 192106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192106=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-192230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Areas affected...far east-central MO into southwest/west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192106Z - 192230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop over the next hour,
though confidence in development is low. If a storm can develop,
large hail and possibly a tornado could occur. Monitoring convective
trends for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus has been noted in visible satellite
imagery this afternoon across east-central MO toward the MS River.
This activity is occurring ahead of a surging surface dryline within
the modestly moist warm sector. Large-scale ascent is increasing
across the region, and low to midlevel flow is likewise becoming
more favorable for organized convection. However, the thermodynamic
environment remains lackluster given shallow/modest boundary layer
moisture with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s F.
However, if a storm can develop, steep midlevel lapse rates and
supercell wind profiles will support large hail. As the surface low
over northeast MO continues eastward, low-level SRH also will
increase. If a storm can develop and mature, at least some tornado
risk could accompany this activity. Given uncertainty, it is
unclear of a small severe or tornado watch will be needed before any
developing convection moves east into WW 0010.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 02/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4cvh98mnS62_QaU6gpqgLhpX7ZhxNTPV1kRvzA9E6EIEyfylneyWXRM7JhtrHgwKSqsZBRX2g= ZvaAQmdURwTDSly7Vk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38609045 39148937 39148883 38608862 38308877 37908949
37809004 37939047 38259064 38439066 38609045=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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