ACUS11 KWNS 191503
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191503=20
OHZ000-INZ000-191630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Areas affected...northern Indiana vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191503Z - 191630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail for a couple of hours this morning. The overall risk
should remain limit in magnitude, and a watch is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning within
an area of warm advection to the north of a surface warm front.
Morning regional RAOBs and latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicated cold
temperatures aloft supporting midlevel lapse rates greater than 7
C/km. As a result, MUCAPE has increased to 250-500 J/kg. Sufficient
effective shear for organized storms is present. Furthermore,
elongated hodographs with increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft
are noted. This environment may sporadically support strong storms
producing marginal hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. The
magnitude of this initial convection is expected to remain limit,
precluding watch issuance at this time.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 02/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4weoH7aQ710TobDdxAg01AMaU3fxisJcnLff7s-Qt0Z3N6qQ2lCupWN1zp5-DRuJZiMYNw0JR= rrGspbdSZ2bYGcHArQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 41128707 41458609 41618540 41508470 41148462 40718465
40568515 40528636 40598680 40768704 41128707=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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