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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2217

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 22 05:35:06 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 220535
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220534=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-220730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2217
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest KY into far northern TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 220534Z - 220730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Localized strong/damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are
    possible late tonight.

    DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is moving across far western KY
    to near the TN state line late this evening. While instability is
    modest at best (with MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg), ascent attendant to
    a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the Ohio Valley may help to
    sustain this cluster as it moves eastward late tonight. Midlevel
    flow and deep-layer shear (as sampled by the KPAH and KHPX VWPs) are
    rather strong, which could allow for convection to remain somewhat
    organized as it moves eastward. Mostly unidirectional wind profiles
    may continue to favor a quasi-linear mode, though a transient
    embedded supercell or two (as recently noted near the KY/TN border)
    cannot be ruled out.=20

    Weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy will tend to limit the
    magnitude of the severe threat. However, locally gusty/damaging
    winds will be possible into the early overnight, and a brief/weak
    tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent supercell
    structures, with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 in place per the KHPX
    VWP.

    ..Dean/Smith.. 11/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9HPfLwmCio8rB7lwbBnZMNq5-OmXFdF-aOFjsWN-GWNOu3W5xKIPtV0qyGoCrZoU8yDjwHFoJ= mQWGsHuZD-bdy5lPDU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 37578760 37678645 37448545 36438564 36158607 36428854
    36878781 37578760=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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