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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2095

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 18 02:28:53 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 180228
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180228=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2095
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0928 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast CO to TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613...

    Valid 180228Z - 180430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong-locally severe thunderstorms will continue along a
    corridor from southeast Colorado to the Texas Panhandle. Gusty winds
    and marginally severe hail are the primary concerns.

    DISCUSSION...Primary frontal zone continues to sag south across the
    central High Plains this evening, currently arcing from southwest
    KS-OK Panhandle-northeast NM. Ahead of this front, a convectively
    enhanced boundary extends across the TX Panhandle into western OK.
    Over the last few hours buoyancy has gradually decreased across much
    of the High Plains, partially due to nocturnal cooling, but also due
    to substantial convective overturning. Post-frontal convection
    should continue propagating southeast across southeast CO, but this
    activity is advancing through an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on
    the order of 500 J/kg. The more concentrated corridor of convection
    over the next few hours will likely be across the TX Panhandle, but
    this activity too may struggle within a limited-buoyancy regime. A
    new severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated.

    ..Darrow.. 09/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_2DTl2qQaWJ4JZWANLAeHAe0T00jYknzfOSfreB9K1N3Cu5_7AoZp09mL5AU1hKImr4bYrhXj= QGTN304CfN7Ue5ABdo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35150087 35790270 37000414 38330494 38400356 37210238
    36070038 35150087=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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