ACUS11 KWNS 172247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172247=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Areas affected...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into the western OK/TX
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613...

Valid 172247Z - 180045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613
continues.

SUMMARY...Hail and gusty winds remain possible with thunderstorms
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Upper trough is settling south across the central
Rockies early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a
weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across CO, which appears
to be influencing convection along the Front Range, south to the
CO/NM border, just east of Raton. Strongest buoyancy extends across
the OK Panhandle into central portions of the watch, and latest
radar data suggests several robust updrafts are likely generating
severe hail east of Raton. This activity will continue to propagate
southeast along a frontal zone that arcs from north of Clayton
NM-south of Guymon OK. Other more isolated activity should spread
southeast off the Palmer Divide along the northern fringe of ww613.
Hail and wind remain possible with these storms.

..Darrow.. 09/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_F2AaqoUpX_at1yV8cXphmOhDXBdfxazdjD2gaCF6zpyIXtyf8oyoVJQMre28GN1u5niwufuY= kiY39cHI25BTN_uLnk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35240491 38640551 38630255 35230206 35240491=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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