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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2092

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 17 20:15:22 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 172015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172015=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2092
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0315 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...far
    western OK/TX Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 172015Z - 172215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds will be possible with initial
    supercells. With time a cluster or two may move into the southern
    High Plains with an attendant wind threat. A watch is possible this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has become more prominent from near
    Colorado Springs southward to the Raton Mesa this afternoon--with
    recent thunderstorm initiation noted in NLDN data. At least some
    MLCIN remains within the Plains to the east, but this should erode
    within the next couple of hours and certainly by late afternoon.
    Moderate mid-level flow around the High Plains upper trough has
    promoted 30-40 kts of effective shear across the terrain. Low 50s F
    dewpoints at this elevation supports near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms
    should at least initially be supercells capable of large hail and
    severe gusts. Given the easterly winds and presence of a weak
    boundary, a brief tornado is also possible. Over time, some upscale
    growth can be expected with the well-mixed boundary layer and weak
    low-level shear leading to propagating outflow. A cluster or two
    could persist into the evening and move into parts of the southern
    High Plains.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 09/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!51Z03aSjz-oDzeRdGDV2HUMkLV3tNWAsn5Vgxxg-tZbyLTssuX42xbiAJWOdtXlTodNyvf2_g= jSb-hwSWzCYhS8zRM8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36820460 37480488 38250516 38850516 39060487 38760423
    38400385 37880314 37340276 36810268 36240294 36180372
    36820460=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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