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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2089

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Sep 17 00:08:25 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 170008
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170007=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2089
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0707 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northeast Colorado into extreme
    northwestern Kansas and western to central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612...

    Valid 170007Z - 170130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe hail/wind threat should persist over the next few
    hours, especially over southwestern NE into northwestern KS.

    DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercell structures have
    merged over several locations, resulting in storms percolating in
    intensity, with the production of severe wind and/or hail as storms
    peak in strength. However, updrafts have been undercut by outflow
    from neighboring storms. Any storms that track eastward over
    southwestern NE into northwestern KS over the next few hours may
    produce a few more instances of severe wind/hail, since the airmass
    here remains buoyant (e.g. 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE). Still, deep-layer
    flow/shear remains weak over the central Plains, so storms will need
    to propagate into this airmass by way of a cold pool. Cold pools
    will also undercut updrafts in this environment as a tradeoff,
    allowing storms to only be potentially severe for brief periods of
    time. As such, the overall severe threat should gradually become
    more isolated into the early overnight hours.

    ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5lPBTm2aIWjHmeIy4H_JfUDPhTBuzslahWBQTfmqq1QonRw7SSOGUkNGNPUJ7QVz-MTJvdNBh= YCJRlROstEeEfJqriA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39880384 40240231 40580161 41690079 42280020 42299977
    42099953 41609901 41189877 40519885 40069906 39559935
    39339961 39280013 39460197 39500292 39600351 39880384=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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