ACUS11 KWNS 141919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141918=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-142145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Georgia into northern/central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141918Z - 142145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon, posing an isolated threat of
damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated on low-level convergence
boundaries across the region this afternoon in a hot, unstable
(~2500 J/kg MLCAPE) airmass. While upper-tropospheric flow is weak
(per XMR 14Z sounding), enhanced low-to-midlevel northerly flow on
the west side of the low off the Atlantic coast may help storm
organization. Local VWPs indicate around 25-30 knots of flow
between 700 and 500 mb, which may help to organize southward-to-south-southwestward-propagating clusters as cold pools
begin to merge. These storms will pose a damaging-wind threat this
afternoon, but the impacts are expected to be too isolated to
warrant a watch.

..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_38OSw0kmbshKlpDGe0EOk_m0UOCcvm43gCFpnQd7rQ9HknMgAiwsLMV_umQE8G8Pd6Ta1QGG= ww513ZltfBj4KCDm5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 26808223 27278110 28788125 29898159 30868165 31688153
31898189 31778225 30928258 30228283 29458293 28818264
28168277 27498273 26808223=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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