ACUS11 KWNS 141720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141720=20 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...VT/NH and western ME into eastern NY...western MA/CT...northeast PA...and northern NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141720Z - 141945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of localized damaging winds are possible
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening early this afternoon
from western VT/ME into eastern NY and northeast PA. Continued
heating of a very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE increasing
above 1500 J/kg, and storm coverage is expected to increase with
time as a midlevel shortwave trough over western PA approaches the
region. Weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft
intensity, but modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow and effective
shear of 25-30 kt could support occasional storm organization.
Relatively large PW (generally 1.5 - 1.8 inches) may result in
localized downbursts with any stronger cells, while a few
outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time. The strongest
cells/clusters may be capable of producing localized damaging winds
through the afternoon.

..Dean/Mosier.. 07/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6bNbZWLEGb_Si6LiYpA2_JuSnluyZcE0idgdwnBpI-YDKUbLjnuk8o5MbLA77TwO5bolZGOey= pP2enZKZkYofWHAHYE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
CTP...

LAT...LON 41517675 41807718 42147708 42557614 43477414 45097322
45227158 46866999 47106872 46856832 45636945 45176986
44547034 43827094 42897169 42347226 41497320 40547430
40797495 41127576 41517675=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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