ACUS11 KWNS 132042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132041=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-132245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...Parts of east TX into far southeast OK...northwest LA...southwest/central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132041Z - 132245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms with locally damaging winds are possible through
the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity has been
noted within a very moist and strongly buoyant environment across
east-central TX, along a composite outflow to the east of a
well-defined MCV over central TX. Deep-layer shear is relatively
weak, but modest southwesterly low/midlevel flow attendant to the
MCV and further outflow consolidation could result in a
northeastward-moving storm cluster that will move toward the
ArkLaTex region through the remainder of the afternoon. Such a
cluster could be accompanied by isolated damaging winds. Additional
storm development will be possible ahead of this developing cluster
into northeast TX and southwest AR, which may also be capable of
producing localized downbursts.

..Dean/Mosier.. 07/13/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_0tZuigSV4K7madqdqozY-ibnITzsCBh5yRUFvtnYdy63AV1TDopOKyugJQZlMgOTN9k4EQvH= MQaqQVHo20v6C_jiF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32119631 33659486 35089343 35329273 35449237 35119174
34389171 33619266 32239336 30479418 30219468 30149530
30119573 30119599 30089649 30399638 31279615 32119631=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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