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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1660

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 13 18:19:11 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 131819
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131818=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-132045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1660
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0118 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

    Areas affected...southern Illinois and adjacent portions of Missouri...Kentucky...and Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 131818Z - 132045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
    this afternoon across the region. An isolated severe weather threat
    may materialize, but a watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Surface-based instability is increasing ahead of a
    convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough. Insolation in a
    very moist environment (2-m Td in the low-to-mid 70s F) has
    eliminated MLCIN, resulting in convective initiation and increasing
    storm coverage and intensity. Enhanced midlevel flow, especially
    with northward extent (around 30 knots per ILX VWP), coupled with
    1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may lead to some storm organization into
    multicell clusters, posing a primary threat of damaging winds. A
    tornado cannot be ruled out given localized pockets of enhanced
    vertical vorticity with multiple MCVs in the area, but the threat
    will likely remain isolated and brief. Given the isolated nature of
    the expected severe weather threat, a watch is unlikely.

    ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_fs1-D3TYyiPCpdnMBf4Tn3CfYDIFJt9MrdGk1t04dAAyS0hDkJ8Sy4qh3kE1dYth7imVSI_= Gcf8YhQWMYc6qjNIUc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

    LAT...LON 36599043 37259016 38198991 38698976 39209009 39578978
    39668873 39518791 38748714 38048707 37208726 36608813
    36188901 36109004 36599043=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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