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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1659

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 13 17:23:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 131723
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131723=20
    VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-132000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1659
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1223 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

    Areas affected...Central PA into parts of NY and extreme northwest
    VT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131723Z - 132000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing localized wind damage are
    possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Morning soundings from KALB and KBUF depicted very rich
    moisture, with PWs in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. Midlevel lapse rates
    are weak, but strong heating of this very moist airmass will result
    in MLCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500 J/kg range this afternoon.
    Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop with
    time within the minimally capped environment. Generally weak
    effective shear (15-20 kt across PA/southern NY and 20-25 kt across
    northern NY) will tend to limit storm organization. However,
    steepening low-level lapse rates and large PW will support a threat
    of isolated wet microbursts and small outflow-dominant clusters
    capable of producing localized wind damage, especially where
    stronger pre-convective heating occurs.=20

    The need for a watch is uncertain due to the anticipated lack of
    storm organization, but watch issuance will become increasingly
    possible if observational trends begin to support areas of more
    concentrated wind-damage potential.

    ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/13/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-bssELbRPynmR4_Z-M_QO60ABA9VhsNzkq_6O-GAoEPMOFACOn2ZmeSEZ87ZLj9WzdMNibvI= Z_sJXyVID_GEW0_pAo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 43007429 40867699 39777744 39787832 39827896 40907914
    41647932 42247918 42527870 42687845 43067773 43437624
    44627554 44827545 45057454 44987296 44547318 43007429=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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