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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1655

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 12 16:43:03 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 121642
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121642=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1655
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

    Areas affected...IN...western/central OH...northern/western
    KY...southern IL...southeast MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121642Z - 121915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated to scattered damaging winds are
    possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A diffuse cold front is currently moving across parts
    of IL/IN, with evidence of a gravity wave preceding the front from
    northwest OH into east/central IN. Cumulus is gradually building in
    the vicinity of this prefrontal feature, with recent storm
    initiation noted across far northwest OH. With weak midlevel lapse
    rates in place, initial convection may only gradually intensify.
    However, rich moisture and MLCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500 J/kg
    range could eventually support more robust storm development
    along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is
    generally weak, but steepening low-level lapse rates and 20-30 kt of southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may allow for a few
    stronger outflow-driven clusters capable of isolated to scattered
    damaging wind.=20

    Farther southwest, a weak storm cluster is ongoing from southeast MO
    into southern IL. Heating/destabilization ahead of this cluster may
    allow for some intensification with time, accompanied by a threat
    for at least isolated damaging winds as it moves generally
    east-northeastward. Additional strong storms may develop in the wake
    of this cluster later this afternoon, along the diffuse cold front
    and any remnant outflow boundaries.=20

    Coverage of the organized severe threat across the region remains
    uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if a corridor of somewhat
    greater damaging-wind potential becomes apparent.

    ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/12/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9GAUuxG_b-NsXGTFm9z0oeVVLLay1NvQdrF3e8fOjbbH43Y1YDk2MbkCEI8KQGscUNf1f6B09= sGOgWo_tA7ROJ8TJME$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38048998 39468779 40478619 41658502 41718318 41348203
    39998306 38628486 37958616 37208804 36768958 37028995
    38048998=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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