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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1651

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 12 02:22:49 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 120222
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120222=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1651
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0922 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

    Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma
    Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

    Valid 120222Z - 120345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat is increasing within WW510.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico have shown better
    organization along outflow over the last 20-30 minutes. In addition,
    cloud top cooling is noted on infrared satellite indicating some
    uptick in intensity. As this line advances into the Texas Panhandle,
    the damaging wind risk may increase over the next couple of hours.
    The downstream environment remains favorable unstable. The 00z RAOB
    from AMA shows steep low level lapse rates and ample MLCAPE. While
    diurnal heating has ended and MLCIN is increasing, this line segment
    will likely be able to maintain intensity for the next couple of
    hours as it tracks southeastward aided by modest south easterlies
    around 20-25 kts noted from KAMA. In addition, new development has
    occurred ahead of the main line of storms which may pose a risk for
    severe hail. Local expansion of WW510 may be needed into the OK/TX
    Panhandles.

    ..Thornton.. 07/12/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7uam9LZEGNjP0rxCN1uy0r9e6jG1oVv0E8fO0ePiSlnx0imKfad0di6GlzEu29XE_dcwbuVYy= J_B8HNhefKmOnShVAs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35790107 35270114 35060136 34860168 34760253 34820342
    34840365 35190442 35460460 35770473 35880457 36080407
    36160351 36410309 36700279 36940285 37100284 37320247
    37080188 36590136 36390125 36190112 35910104 35790107=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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