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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1646

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 11 20:53:24 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 112053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112053=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-112230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1646
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

    Areas affected...Southern/eastern IA into southwest WI...northwest
    IL...far northern MO

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 505...

    Valid 112053Z - 112230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 505 continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind and localized tornado potential will
    continue through late afternoon. Eventual downstream watch issuance
    is possible.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, a small bowing segment appears to be
    developing across east-central IA, with the KDVN/KDMX radars
    depicting a compact but intensifying velocity signature across
    Benton and Linn Counties. This bowing segment will continue to move
    eastward along a baroclinic zone and could produce a swath of
    damaging winds, along with some potential for a line-embedded
    tornado and isolated hail.

    Elsewhere, multiple discrete cells are ongoing from southwest WI
    into parts of southern IA. While deep-layer shear is only marginally
    favorable for supercells, a favorable overlap of low-level
    instability and modestly enhanced surface vorticity could support a
    tornado threat with these cells, especially in the vicinity of the
    primary baroclinic zone. The stronger cells will also be capable of
    producing isolated hail.=20

    Some severe threat may eventually spread into a larger portion of central/northern IL and southern WI, and downstream watch issuance
    is possible depending on short-term trends with ongoing convection.

    ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9EB4jNTy1JCcuI8hfqLS3-8vcgGhhzx_m0qtpJ7uNtbAqaOrMLCi2r09mtDnqn58tWomazNnS= _fGepBXhEC5lEQ3Vbg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 41289472 41569262 42639194 42889041 42888944 42428875
    41718893 41188986 40369129 40309263 40309402 40329457
    40459468 40799456 41289472=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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