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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1639

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 11 05:45:55 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 110544
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110544=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-110715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1639
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1244 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

    Areas affected...east-central and eastern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503...

    Valid 110544Z - 110715Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A downstream severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon
    across portions of eastern Iowa.

    DISCUSSION...A well-established bowing cluster with a history of
    severe wind gusts is currently moving across central Iowa. The KDMX
    VWP suggests this cluster has started to outrun the stronger
    low-level jet which could limit its intensity as it moves farther
    east. However, 2000 to 2500 J/kg MUCAPE is present across all of
    central and eastern Iowa which could maintain this cluster with some
    severe weather threat across eastern Iowa through the early morning
    hours. This threat would likely be maximized along the frontal zone
    (apparent by lead convection across eastern Iowa and far western
    Illinois). Confidence in this cluster of storms moving farther east
    into Illinois is low given the weaker instability, ongoing
    convection along the boundary, and a weaker low-level jet with
    eastward extent. However, there may be sufficient
    instability/forcing to necessitate a small downstream watch across
    eastern Iowa to address this threat. Convective trends will continue
    to be monitored.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-MywJY9SZx4UWMovwtsLeCwzCpZzS617EwMq_JByYoqP3x6omIpHCiCQTVAbvNAgm_D6GoKHE= PMaHPUyls5WpAO8Bsw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

    LAT...LON 41859412 41969294 41919166 41889065 41659027 41199055
    40859096 40899157 40929208 40909244 40949361 41059404
    41859412=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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