ACUS11 KWNS 102345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102345=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Western Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

Valid 102345Z - 110145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across eastern Nebraska into
western Iowa.

DISCUSSION...Short-wave ridging that has been observed over the
lower MO Valley is shifting east as a secondary, notable short-wave
trough is advancing across central SD/western NE. Low-level warm
advection is focused into this region, just north of a boundary that
is draped from south of Grand Island-Omaha-north of Des Moines. This warm-advection regime favors rotation, and a few slow-moving
supercells can be expected in advance of the short wave this
evening. While some supercell structures are possible, with time
convection may evolve into larger clusters, and possibly an MCS. LLJ
is forecast to strengthen across northeast KS into southwest IA
later this evening, and this should encourage more robust convection
to propagate into this portion of the MO Valley with time.

..Darrow.. 07/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9TSpqyOQiRTGvi1ZQnmQUxJ_z7ropGvS6aGxD4VGlWnCt0NzIKvYk0V3_g3vyS2bz-w9JdHm4= pr40snlhXQ-3VFDTrw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 40409966 42579967 43069519 40889519 40409966=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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