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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1633

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 10 19:45:36 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 101944
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101943=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-102145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1633
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado to northeast New Mexico and
    northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101943Z - 102145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving off the Rockies will be capable of
    severe downburst winds from eastern Colorado into northeast New
    Mexico and northwest Kansas. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be
    relatively higher across CO, and may require watch issuance in the
    short-term.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has slowly increased over the
    past 1-2 hours across central CO. Observed dewpoint depressions on
    the order of 40-50 F hint that very deep/dry boundary layers are in
    place east of the Front Range across the High Plains. While buoyancy
    is fairly limited (MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg), LCLs between 3-4 km
    will favor very strong downdraft accelerations via evaporative
    cooling. Severe downburst winds have already been observed with more
    isolated convection earlier today, and velocity imagery from KFTG is
    showing 40-50 knot low-level outflow winds associated with stronger
    convective cores. The potential for severe winds should increase in
    tandem with convective coverage through the late afternoon hours
    when diurnal heating/mixing will be maximized. Expanding cold pools
    coupled with 25-35 knot 0-6 km bulk shear may support the
    development of one or more organized clusters that could pose a more
    robust wind threat with gusts potentially as high as 80 mph. In
    general, thunderstorm coverage should remain greatest across CO due
    to ascent associated with a passing mid-level wave and weak cold
    front, though more isolated severe storms are possible further south
    into northeast NM. Watch issuance is probable for portions of the
    region as thunderstorm coverage (and the severe wind threat)
    increases.

    ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/10/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6jKCc9jMlbnf416UaM40BamJiWLBGw9Jb-7zvcJwEgdpWt_OcLHdKwVWf4icpISQ0P75Byx-c= oLeQxVof9lpsN3BiXE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 38310506 40210503 40740455 40890400 40960352 40970311
    40880261 40690210 40350148 40020119 39280121 38410167
    37250255 35580361 35270394 35110447 35120476 35310499
    35720504 38310506=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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