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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1628

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 10 17:55:44 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 101755
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101755=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-102030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1628
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

    Areas affected...much of northern and eastern Iowa into a small part
    of western Wisconsin and Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101755Z - 102030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may develop along the southern periphery of the
    clouds/south of the MCV, with hail or brief tornado risk. The area
    is being monitored, but a watch is not expected in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...A prominent MCS is moving across southern MN, with an
    impressive upper-level outflow presentation on satellite. Meanwhile,
    lower clouds continue to rotate in cyclonic fashion.

    Areas of low to midlevel confluence likely exist around the MCV,
    though only a weak pattern of surface convergence is currently
    observed. However, strong heating over much of IA south of the MCV
    is leading to expanding CU fields, with a weak boundary from
    north-central into eastern IA. CAM solutions are quite variable, but
    it is plausible that storms, perhaps supercells, could develop later
    this afternoon as temperatures warm further. LCLs will be low, and
    low-level shear should remain sufficient to support a brief tornado,
    given a supercell.

    ..Jewell/Mosier.. 07/10/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wvRVtfBP-6Fc7-fRE0ZEY77u_2adJ25XigCMYzTGhvW_zzm6d8S86vxazVMXPzy4_dK6xJU2= A5BmmXeBNetU8Udr0Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 41269044 41529183 42099335 42469488 42789510 43209495
    43549402 43639313 43569206 43289097 42879024 42268981
    41778971 41318994 41269044=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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