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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1627

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 10 16:52:49 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 101652
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101651=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1627
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

    Areas affected...Northeast Ohio into northern Pennsylvania and
    western New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101651Z - 101845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing through the afternoon
    will be capable of damaging winds. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lighting data show the early
    stages of thunderstorm development across northeast OH into western
    NY within a diffuse surface trough and along developing lake breeze
    boundaries. Thunderstorm coverage should slowly increase through the
    afternoon as temperatures warm and baroclinic circulations
    strengthen along the lake breeze boundaries. Despite warm/moist
    low-level conditions, modest mid-level lapse rates should limit
    overall buoyancy values to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Additionally,
    deep-layer wind shear over the region remains fairly meager with
    regional VWPs and morning RAOBs sampling mid/upper-level winds of
    around 20-30 knots. Given weak low-level flow, this will be adequate
    for some degree of storm organization and persistence, but should
    modulate overall convective intensities. Watch issuance is not
    expected, but a few instances of damaging winds appear possible as
    storms develop through the afternoon.

    ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/10/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4qzq7kTWaN0W9TCJW0JOiXd8QFwrS8COIWGvZDLe0vg09IB13Jv9B7YhQ4g2p3XYGYV5SvLy0= 88N3f-DWgeogcQtf4A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40968248 41188220 43437605 43517545 43387513 42997473
    42627468 42187482 41947534 40228061 40088127 40048180
    40148226 40388246 40648249 40968248=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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