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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1626

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 10 08:58:33 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 100857
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100857=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-101030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1626
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast NE into adjacent
    southwest IA...northwest MO...and northeast KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 100857Z - 101030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may continue through the early
    morning.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS has shown a gradual weakening trend
    from western IA into southeast NE early this morning. However, a
    wake low has developed behind the line across southeast NE, as
    evidenced by an earlier 1-hour pressure drop of 7.8 mb and gusts up
    to 56 kt at KLNK. This area of strong to locally severe wake low
    winds may spread across parts of northeast KS and far northwest
    MO/southwest IA with time. Locally damaging gusts also remain
    possible near the primary gust front of the QLCS, especially where
    more vigorous convection persists across southwest IA.=20

    Farther west, a strong low-level jet (as noted on recent VWPs from
    KLNX) and related warm-advection regime are supporting strong to
    potentially severe elevated storms across central NE. An earlier
    cell within this regime became rather intense, with MESH hail
    estimates of greater than 2 inches in diameter. While this cell has
    since weakened, strong elevated instability and sufficient effective
    shear may continue to support a threat of isolated hail and
    localized strong/damaging gusts within this regime through the early
    morning.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/10/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8TwDmi6LBasy51RExFOYmbaWmJta1izf8oCKtRYD_QkGLdQ_7B6r54dW0nmMAykd8Gehl_CaA= 4jaM1WgXDO3ISjDdd0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42339995 42719947 42299868 41489788 40909748 41019555
    41439480 41449405 41349376 40989386 40399398 40059412
    39769476 39849733 40059822 40329879 40629925 41249978
    41599993 42339995=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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