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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1623

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 10 01:27:46 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 100127
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100126=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-100300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1623
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0826 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

    Areas affected...South-central ND...central SD...and north-central
    NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...500...

    Valid 100126Z - 100300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498, 500
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Swaths of severe wind remain possible with multiple MCSs
    traversing the region tonight. Isolated large hail is also possible
    with the more discrete storms.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar data shows two primary MCSs tracking eastward/southeastward across central SD/south-central ND and
    north-central NE tonight. The northern MCS has already produced a
    swath of measured severe wind gusts, with more isolated wind reports
    with the southern MCS over NE. As these systems continue
    east-southeastward, extremely unstable inflow (sampled by the
    modified ABR 00Z sounding), 30-40 kt of line-orthogonal effective
    shear, and a 30-kt low-level jet (per VWP data) should support the
    maintenance of these systems for at least the next couple hours. It
    is possible that both MCSs will peak in intensity during this time
    frame, before the boundary layer nocturnally cools. The primary
    concern will be swaths of severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible),
    though isolated large hail also remains possible with the more
    discrete storms evolving along trailing outflow boundaries.

    ..Weinman.. 07/10/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!64y8mkfSF6gcMuRuHINsmLInSt-8DYgYhdxqLWD0q6fave-M9qnFQRYKrboHLkzhhqryOEVnb= 7owkIl00rq3CSUH4YU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45789993 46569991 46979960 46919872 46529809 45549789
    43899803 42949831 42169876 41449955 41340017 41500089
    41940110 42440074 43080005 44489998 45789993=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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