ACUS11 KWNS 091950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091949=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-092145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Far northern North Carolina into Virginia and
southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497...

Valid 091949Z - 092145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensification is ongoing across northern
North Carolina into Virginia. An increase in damaging/severe wind
potential is expected over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A leading convective band emanating off the Blue Ridge
Mountains is becoming established from northern VA into far
northwest NC. Latest GOES IR imagery shows rapid cloud-top cooling
associated with several deeper embedded convective cores, signifying
robust intensification. Buoyancy immediately downstream continues to
increase with temperatures warming into the upper 80s/low 90s and
MLCAPE approaching 2500 J/kg as of the 20z RAP mesoanalysis. This
air mass should promote further intensification over the next
several hours and is favorable for strong water-loaded downbursts.
At this point, storm mode should primarily be linear given mean flow
oriented along the developing band. 25-30 knot bulk shear should
support a few embedded surging segments within the line that may
pose a few focused corridors of damaging/severe winds with gusts as
high as 55-65 mph. Latest guidance hints that this potential should
be maximized over the next few hours from the NC/VA border into
central VA.

..Moore.. 07/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_17ITMsh47l2YXdPfdR1tBFYeIuL77J5WTmYayZ6XqELzHvK2zlAfBGnWgWLho28-NdpA6Ry8= 6gRJ2VjQOKJ3-5oeXE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 37117722 36797775 36427866 36217940 36097999 36018056
36028104 36108130 36378131 36648072 36838020 37157960
37467918 37927853 38337804 38967762 39177729 39087654
38887620 38477605 37947618 37507668 37117722=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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