ACUS11 KWNS 091649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091649=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-091845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 091649Z - 091845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify as they spread
east into the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. Watch
issuance is expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR and MRMS imagery all show steady
intensification of convection as well as a gradual increase in
convective coverage across the central Appalachians. This trend is
expected to continue over the next several hours amid continued
daytime heating/destabilization and as convection approaches the
apex of a buoyancy axis extending from the Carolinas into southern
PA. Additionally, moderate mid-level flow associated with a
low-amplitude upper disturbance is supporting adequate deep-layer
shear (around 30 knots) for organized convection, including a couple
of supercells. The expectation over the next several hours is that a
mix of discrete cells and clusters will gradually grow upscale into
one or more short, but organized, line segments given persistent
broad-scale ascent, limited capping, and storm motions largely
aligned with the zone of initiation. As such, an initial threat of
large hail and sporadic severe winds should transition to primarily
a severe wind threat as storms approach the I-95 corridor later this
afternoon. Watch issuance is expected to address this potential.

..Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-SiaQy52Bs9ZZXJwLLWrvWyq-2BLdCNrEDHxr9W7UCKEtTAoqFXh5oZrM-hSgV5ZcFAztBWzI= j1sZVMxuo0JLoLK8Gk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 40517772 40627732 40617676 40487610 40247563 39947521
39657498 39187517 38857559 37597849 37497918 37507973
37568022 37928051 38468050 38908025 40517772=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)