ACUS01 KWNS 080610
SWODY1
SPC AC 080609

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...

CORRECTED FOR REGIONAL HEADER

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid Atlantic.
More isolated activity is expected across portions of the Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Middle Atlantic...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave
trough over the upper MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest
model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the central
Great Lakes region by the end of the period. As the short wave
advances east, a corridor of higher PW (currently extending from AR
into the upper OH Valley) will be shunted downstream as a
low-amplitude disturbance ejects toward the Mid Atlantic. While some suppression of the height field can be expected late, it appears the
weak disturbance should be the primary mechanism for encouraging
somewhat stronger southwesterly flow which would extend as far south
as central VA. Even so, 0-6km bulk shear is only expected to be on
the order of 20-25kt, but favorably oriented for clusters and short
line segments. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates, but
high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
especially with any organized clusters. Convective temperatures will
be breached by 17-18z as readings climb into the mid 80s, and
scattered thunderstorms should readily develop from central PA into
central VA. This activity will then propagate toward the Mid
Atlantic Coast with an attendant risk for damaging winds.

...Plains...

Upper ridge is forecast to hold across the southwestern U.S. through
the day1 period; although, northwesterly flow is expected to
increase a bit along the eastern periphery of this feature over the
High Plains. As a result, high-level diffluent flow will be noted
across the southern Plains into southern MO. At the surface,
low-level boundaries/convergence will prove weak, and left-over
convective debris will likely prove influential in late-afternoon
development. Early this morning, an MCS was propagating south across
eastern NE/southwest IA. This complex will likely advance into
southeast KS/southwest MO by sunrise. It's not entirely clear how
organized this cluster will be at the start of the period, but
convective outflow will likely contribute to additional development
later in the day. Strong boundary-layer heating will also aid
isolated thunderstorm development across the High Plains of eastern
WY/CO/NM. This activity will spread southeast during the evening
with a risk for hail/wind.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110622
SWODY1
SPC AC 110621

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...ADJACENT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are likely to impact a corridor from the lower
Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Great Lakes region
this afternoon and evening, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail.

...Discussion...
While mid/upper ridging across the subtropical into southern
mid-latitudes remains at least a bit suppressed for the time of
year, models indicate that the stronger westerlies will remain
confined to the higher latitudes. It does appear that one notable
short wave trough, now digging to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies, will progress eastward along the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity today through tonight, and gradually
pivot from a positive to neutral tilt. As it does, preceding weak
mid-level troughing, and at least a couple of embedded convective perturbations, are forecast to accelerate northeastward within weak
to modest ambient flow backing to a southwesterly component across
the lower Missouri Valley vicinity into the Great Lakes region.

At the same time, northwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained
with weak height falls across the southern Rockies into adjacent
Great Plains, while gradual mid-level height rises are forecast
across the Appalachians into Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower-levels, the primary short wave trough may support a modest
developing surface low across northwestern Ontario, with cooler and
drier air in its wake overspreading much of the northern Great
Plains by 12Z Saturday. Another low emerging from the central Great
Plains is forecast to migrate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley
toward the upper Great Lakes, along an initially diffuse low-level
baroclinic zone.

...Lower Missouri Valley into Great Lakes...
The low-level baroclinic zone may still be a focus for weakening
convective development at the outset of the period. However, as the
convection dissipates further, models suggest that the boundary will
become better defined with strengthening differential heating.
Surface dew points near and above 70F, beneath modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates, are forecast to contribute to CAPE on the
order of 2000-3000 J/kg along and south of the boundary, gradually
tapering to the north, beneath a lingering belt of convectively
augmented mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt in the 700-500 mb
layer). Coupled with modest, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
developing in advance of the migratory low, the environment may
become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a few
tornadoes across parts of northern Missouri and southeastern Iowa
into northern Illinois, before damaging wind gusts become the more
predominant potential hazard as convection tends to grow upscale
into clusters through this evening.

...Southern Rockies into the Great Plains...
Thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest low-level moisture,
but with generally steep lapse rates, including fairly deep
boundary-layer mixing, may become conducive to scattered
thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for severe wind and hail late
this afternoon and evening. This may be aided by modest shear
beneath the northwesterly mid-level flow, with thunderstorm activity
mostly initiating off the higher terrain of the Front Range through
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. However, low-level convergence within
surface troughing across southern Kansas through the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle vicinity may also become sufficient for thunderstorm
initiation during the peak late afternoon heating.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141636
SWODY1
SPC AC 141635

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon
into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with
some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is
currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians,
along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly
cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently
ongoing just ahead of this shortwave.

Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue
eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper
troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of
ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is
in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will
support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon
despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough)
moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places
a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through
central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the
large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support
scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon.

While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected
to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into
multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates
and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to
damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through
the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and
greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern
PA through central VA.

...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota...
Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across
the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this
vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a
sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote
thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late
afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of
stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly
flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better
moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for
strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout
the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface
trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A
conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the
surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm
coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air
advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated
thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an
upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and
buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions
tonight.

...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula...
Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in
strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL
Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards
the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to
widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection
should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated
strong to severe winds are possible.

...AZ...
High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to
around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ
this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop
across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed
boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are
possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse.

...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South...
A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this
morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX
Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north
TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least
scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with
each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical
shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the
stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging
downbursts.

..Mosier.. 07/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 122014
SWODY1
SPC AC 122012

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
the Great Lakes/Midwest this afternoon with both damaging winds and
hail possible.

...20Z Update...
Given the weak mid/upper-level flow, the potential for organized
severe wind gusts appears very limited in southeast
Arizona/southwest New Mexico. Steep low-level lapse rates may still
support strong/gusty outflow however. Elsewhere only minor update
the general thunderstorm area were made. See the previous discussion
for additional details.

..Wendt.. 08/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025/

...Great Lakes/Midwest...
Midday satellite/radar composite show a weakened thunderstorm band
moving east-northeast across the eastern part of Lower MI. Surface
analysis indicates rain-cooled air north of a gust front/outflow
that has become draped from southeast Lower MI into the Michiana
region. Heating south of this boundary has resulted in temperatures
warming through the mid-upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Additional storms will probably develop along the trailing outflow
and gradually move east-northeast with the mean wind. Considerably
weaker deep-layer shear is present across the eastern part of the
Corn Belt into the Lower MI vicinity compared to farther north over
the U.P. of MI in closer proximity to a shortwave trough.
Nonetheless, scattered thunderstorms will gradually develop within a moist/destabilizing airmass and pose a risk for isolated strong to
perhaps locally severe/damaging gusts this afternoon.

Farther north in WI into the U.P. of MI, a weak cold front will move
into the region later this afternoon. Model guidance shows widely
scattered storms developing as filtered sunshine leads to a
destabilizing boundary layer. A few stronger thunderstorms are
possible and could yield a localized risk for marginally severe hail
and damaging gusts during the mid afternoon to early evening period.

...Southeast AZ/southwest NM...
Strong heating should result in widely scattered thunderstorms
developing near terrain-favored areas. Weak shear will result in
disorganized storms, but the development of very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates will promote strong evaporative cooling with the
more intense downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241311
SWODY1
SPC AC 241310

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across
the south-central High Plains spanning eastern Colorado into western
Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms are also possible across
portions of Pennsylvania and New York.

...South-central High Plains..
Within an amplified upper flow regime, a moderately strong belt of northwesterly winds aloft will exist over the region, with one or
more low-amplitude ridge-peripheral disturbances expected to pivot
eastward later today over the central Rockies. A pronounced surface
anticyclone will settle into the northern Plains, forcing the
leading edge of more continental air into the southern Plains by the
end of the period. A corridor of low-level warm advection will
become established from southern Wyoming into western Oklahoma
coincident with the northwest/southeast-oriented front.

Widely scattered generally non-severe elevated storms will probably
persist this morning across western Kansas, with some potential that
the storms may help focus some renewed/increasing convective
potential later today from southwest Kansas into western
Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle. Aided by increasing low-level
upslope flow, other potentially severe storms are expected to
develop across the Colorado Front Range vicinity by late afternoon
and drift southeastward through early/mid-evening. A couple of
supercells will initially be possible, before storms tend to cluster
by evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns
regionally, although current thinking is that overall potential
should remain relatively isolated.

...Northeast including New York/Pennsylvania...
A prominent upper-level trough over Ontario/Quebec and Great Lakes
will shift eastward today. An associated surface front is forecast
to advance into western portions of New York/Pennsylvania by early
afternoon. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to aid
destabilization ahead of the front and convective temperatures
should be breached by around 20-21z; although, deep-layer lapse
rates are not expected to be particularly steep (0-6 km values
around 6.5 C/km). These storms could generate locally strong winds,
and perhaps some hail, with the main risk from mid-afternoon into
early evening.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111712
SWODY1
SPC AC 111710

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

CORRECTED FOR PROB GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana
into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening.
The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a
downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over
the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends
from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward
through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A
mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western
WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards
this evening.

In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude
northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT.
A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the
northern High Plains.

...Rockies into the northern Plains...
An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air
advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move
east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over
western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from
near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor
scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early
afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central
Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an
isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the
plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume
primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will
probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a
cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting
organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine
to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat.
The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening
within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual
transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as
convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens.

..15_ows.. 09/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 172014
SWODY1
SPC AC 172013

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD COLOR FILL ISSUE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also
anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and
tonight.

...Eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa...
Near the base of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and a pronounced
100+ kt mid-level jet, strong ascent is expected to develop late
this afternoon amid a mixed and modestly moist air mass. Cool
mid-level temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F
may allow a few hundred J/kg of buoyancy to develop. This
destabilization and strong ascent may support a fast-moving arc of
high-based showers/thunderstorms, particularly where surface
temperatures reach into the 60s and dewpoints hold above 40 F.

While buoyancy will be weak, dry low-levels and strong
dynamics/background flow could support efficient downward mixing of
momentum to the surface. Isolated severe/damaging gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern NE into
west-central IA. Convection should weaken rapidly with eastward
extent

Elsewhere, isolated strong storms remain possible across portions of
the CA coast ahead of a strong secondary upper trough. This is most
likely overnight with a few damaging gusts or a brief tornado the
primary risks owing to very strong flow and modest inland moisture
advection. No changes were made to the outlook here, see the prior
discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 02/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the
western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs
within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the
central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly
northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move
across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this
surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly
negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in
strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper
Midwest this evening and overnight.

Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop
slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots
around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level
temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support
isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast
throughout the day and tonight.

...Coastal California...
Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas
of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at
500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the
region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent
could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the
region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more
bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer
flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could
result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally,
there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest
potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in
the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas.

...Upper Midwest...
Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region
ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated
forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be
limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps
low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface
destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates
in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across
far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or
two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could
produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain
less than 10%.

Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during
the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable
east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and
overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support
severe hail with this elevated activity.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200546
SWODY1
SPC AC 200545

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

...SUMMARY...
Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid
Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the
Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving
offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong
westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds.

To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west
fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move
northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing
southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the
southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral.
While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm
advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm
profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong
deep-layer shear.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 212023
SWODY1
SPC AC 212021

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.

...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 02/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 032034
SWODY1
SPC AC 032032

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

CORRECTED FOR TESTING THE CORRECTION PROCESS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk continues across parts of the southern/central
Plains into Missouri and western Illinois. Moisture continues
northward, observed in visible satellite and 60 F dew points
increasing from the south into southern Kansas. Thunderstorm
development is still expected to be delayed into the evening as
modest capping remains in place. Some conditional risk for large
hail (some up to 1.5-2" in diameter) will be possible, mainly across
northwest Oklahoma into southern Kansas. In this region, a favorable
overlap of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will overlap with steep
mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear near the frontal
boundary.

..Thornton.. 03/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies and this feature will move into the central
High Plains late tonight. A frontal zone this morning is draped
from near the Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle extends
east-northeastward across northern OK into the Ozarks. A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist fetch into OK today
and into the Ozarks and parts of the mid MS Valley. A dryline is
forecast to mix eastward across the southern High Plains by late
this afternoon, intersecting the surface front in the northwest
TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Convection will likely be inhibited during the day across much of
the MRGL Risk owing to both capping and weak mid-level shortwave
ridging. The strongest heating and low-level convergence is
forecast across parts of northwest TX/southwest OK where convective
inhibition will become weakened by late afternoon. Have adjusted
severe hail probabilities farther south into parts of northwest TX
to account for the potential for a supercell or two this evening
into the overnight hours. As large-scale forcing for ascent
continues to strengthen through the evening into the overnight,
expected widely scattered thunderstorms to eventually develop near
the frontal zone (perhaps favoring a northwest OK/southern KS
corridor). Large hail will be the hazard with the stronger storms.
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 072039
SWODY1
SPC AC 072037

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TEXAS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR LINE PLACEMENT ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Main edits
with this update were to remove probabilities behind the main lines
of storms across the Northeast and from the Mid-South into the
Southern Plains.

Across the Northeast, a broken line of storms continues
northeastward, with a few leading line supercell structures ongoing.
The environment ahead of this line continues to destabilize with
daytime heating in combination with continued strong flow aloft
promoting an uptick in storm organization. See MCD#167 for more
information.

From the Ohio Valley to Mid-South the Gulf States and into the far
eastern Southern Plains, a line of storms continues southeastward
this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of
this line within the warm sector. The environment ahead of this line
is very moist and unstable. Further south, there is some
displacement from the strongest winds aloft, though deep layer shear
remains favorable. See MCD#168 for more information.

See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/

...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.

As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.

...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.

Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211938
SWODY1
SPC AC 211937

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREA HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening from the
southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below), remains on track. Please see
Mesoscale Discussion 283 for short-term information on the severe
threat across portions of the southern Appalachians.

..Squitieri.. 03/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/

...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas...
Recent satellite imagery shows a somewhat subtle and broad shortwave
trough progressing southeastward through the MS Valley, along the
far northeast periphery of the upper ridging covering much of the
Southwest and southern Plains. Limited low-level moisture precedes
this wave, with recent surface analysis sampling dewpoints ranging
from the upper 50s across much of AL to the mid 40s across much of
the Carolinas. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated
today ahead of this wave. However, this advection will be countered
by diurnal mixing, and the general expectation is for dewpoints to
be in the upper 40s/low 50s from eastern TN into the Carolinas as
the wave moves in the area this afternoon. Even with this limited
low-level moisture, cool mid-level temperatures and associated steep
mid-level lapse rates will support weak buoyancy and the potential
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening.

Large-scale ascent will be modest, supporting an initially more
cellular, loosely organized storm mode. This region will be on the
southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, likely resulting
in sufficient shear for organization within any deeper, more
persistent updrafts. As such, updrafts are expected to gradually
intensify as they move into the western and central Carolinas.
Marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest cores. A trend
towards a more linear/line segment mode is expected with time, and
persistent steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong
to damaging downdraft winds as well. The onset of nocturnal
boundary-layer stabilization should result in a decreasing severe
threat as the storms move into the coastal Carolinas.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030810
SWODY1
SPC AC 030808

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

CORRECTED FOR CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.

A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across
the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a
modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central
Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low
lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push
northward toward Lower Michigan.

... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...

As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing
pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds
will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front.
Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will
contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values
approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the
day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and
south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline.
However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding
the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm
mode evolution.

If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field
would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat
along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm
front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode
emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds
and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode,
uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is
low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The
Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a
wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent
forecasts.

... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan
...

Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front
during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty
regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic
and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind
along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of
this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete
supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.

... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest
Texas...

Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time,
additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The
combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the
convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the
main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear
segments.

... Southwest Texas ...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening
along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will
support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage
precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk.

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050556
SWODY1
SPC AC 050554

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
this afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
region.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging
builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will
support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore
over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to
the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level
moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential
ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will
be strongest.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from
central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer
mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F
surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this
boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline,
with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As
the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of
storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall
line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080111
SWODY1
SPC AC 080109

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight over the northern and
southern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough continues to progress across the northern
Rockies, providing enough mechanical lift amid cooler temperatures
aloft to support isolated high-based thunderstorms atop a dry
boundary layer. A low-amplitude mid-level impulse will also continue
to traverse the southern Rockies, supporting scattered lightning
flashes given the presence of scant buoyancy. These storms should
gradually diminish through the evening as boundary-layer
stabilization from nocturnal cooling takes place.

..Squitieri.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110123
SWODY1
SPC AC 110121

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible during the late
evening hours across parts of the southern Plains and Great Basin;
however, the overall severe risk appears limited.

...Southern Plains...
Latest MRMS imagery depicts steady weakening of convection across
northeast NM and across northern OK with the onset of nocturnal
cooling and expanding convective outflows. While a couple of
stronger storms are noted across far eastern NM and southwest TX,
weak deep-layer wind shear and diminishing buoyancy should favor a
weakening trend heading into the late evening hours.

Additional elevated thunderstorms are anticipated well north of the
stalled surface boundary along the OK/KS border with recent CAM
guidance suggesting multi-cell clusters developing across portions
of central to northeast KS after 03 UTC. The recent 00z DDC RAOB
likely sampled the environment this convection will develop in, and
hints that at least a small hail threat may materialize with
initially discrete cells prior to upscale growth within the first
couple of hours after initiation.

...Great Basin...
Similar to the southern Plains, convective trends have largely shown
signs of weakening over the past hour across central to northern NV
where surface temperatures are quickly cooling into the 60s. The
combination of rain-cooled air/outflows and the onset of nocturnal
cooling should further reduce any remaining mixed-layer buoyancy
(which was already fairly marginal per regional 00z RAOBs).
Consequently, the thermodynamic environment no longer appears
supportive of intense convection, though a strong storm or two may
persist for the next hour as the boundary layer continues to
stabilize.

..Moore.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160611
SWODY1
SPC AC 160609

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN
VERMONT...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS AND WORDING

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in a corridor
across western through central New York (state) and adjacent
southern Vermont.

...Discussion...
A significant mid-level trough and embedded low now digging across
the Pacific Northwest is forecast to split as it continues inland
through this period. One perturbation, perhaps including a
continuing cyclonic circulation, is forecast to turn eastward across
the northern Rockies through the central Canadian/U.S. border area.
Another perturbation is forecast to dig southeastward across the
Great Basin into early Friday. It appears that the larger-scale
evolving troughing will be preceded by a significant cold frontal
surge to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, through much of the
northern and central Great Plains by 12Z Friday.

Downstream, initially prominent mid-level ridging centered near the
southern Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to become increasingly
suppressed, as one short wave trough, approaching southwestern
portions of the Great Lakes region early today, turns eastward then southeastward across the lower Great Lakes vicinity into northern
Mid Atlantic. It appears that this will be trailed by another
perturbation, which is forecast to progress east of the Ozark
Plateau through the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, before digging
across the southern Appalachians, downstream of short wave ridging
building across and east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley.

...Mid South into lower Great Lakes and Northeast...
The primary and trailing short wave troughs advancing to the east of
the Mississippi Valley are forecast to be preceded by the remnants
of overnight convection across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley, and Mid South at the outset of the period. The impacts of
associated cloud cover and outflow on destabilization within the
warm sector of a broad, but weak, surface low migrating northeast of
the lower Great Lakes during the day remain unclear. However,
various model output, including convection allowing guidance,
suggest that destabilization and strengthening shear along a warm
frontal zone (as it strengthens with differential heating) may
become a focus for organized strong thunderstorm development across
New York state by afternoon. It appears that this may include an
evolving cluster, perhaps preceded by more discrete thunderstorm
activity, in an environment conducive to evolving supercell
structures, with potential to produce severe hail, wind and a risk
for a couple of tornadoes.

Additional thunderstorm activity may eventually develop and
strengthen, accompanied by at least a risk for strong to severe wind
gusts by late afternoon, in a corridor of stronger daytime heating
ahead of a developing cold front spreading into the upper Ohio
Valley/Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau.

Farther west/southwest, there is not a well-defined signal in the
latest model output, but a corridor of differential surface heating
along weakening trailing convective outflow across the Mid South
vicinity could become a focus for supercell development. It
currently appears that this potential could peak across north
central into northeastern Arkansas by late this afternoon, aided by
moderate boundary-layer destabilization and stronger mid-level
forcing for ascent associated with a cyclonic vorticity center
migrating across the region.

...Southern Great Plains...
Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop
beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline which likely
will be retreating westward across the high plains by early this
evening. While this will be conditionally supportive of severe
thunderstorm development, forcing to support initiation of sustained thunderstorms remains unclear, aside from, perhaps, the higher
terrain near/east of the Texas Big Bend. Beneath moderate to strong southwesterly mid/upper flow, this could include an isolated
supercell or two which could propagate across the Rio Grande River,
before weakening in the presence of increasing inhibition this
evening.

..Kerr/Lyons.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171705
SWODY1
SPC AC 171703

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR ORIENTATION OF THE 45% HAIL PROBABILITIES

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this
may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few
strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become
the most prominent hazard by this evening.

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central MN, with a
cold front extending southwestward to another low over central KS. A
warm front also extends southwestward from the MN low through far
southwest MN and far northern IL into central IN. This warm front is
demarcated well by the 56 deg F isodrosotherm. Farther south, a
dryline extends from the triple point KS low back southwestward
through the TX Panhandle and into far southeast NM. A broad, moist
warm sector exists to the east of the cold front and dryline,
characterized largely by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

A well-defined shortwave trough is apparent on satellite imagery,
extending from southern Saskatchewan back southwestward into the
eastern Great Basin. This wave is forecast to continue eastward,
with a attendant increase in the mid-level flow across much of the
Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. The cold front will surge eastward/southeastward in response to this wave as well, interacting
with the warm sector to support numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the
lower Missouri Valley into southern Plains.

...Upper/Mid MS Valley...
Moderate to strong low-level moisture advection is expected across
the Upper MS Valley today as the surface low mentioned in the
synopsis progresses northeastward, with an attendant northward shift
of the warm front as well. The risk across this region may evolve in
several phases, beginning with the elevated thunderstorms currently
ongoing across northwest WI. This storms will likely continue
northeastward, posing a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging
gusts. Additional development is possible northwest of this activity
along the occluded front, with some hail possible here as well.

Farther south, the northeastward advecting low-level moisture
coupled with strong heating and steep lapse rates will result in a
strongly unstable airmass along and just south of the warm front by
the early afternoon. Storm initiation is anticipated within this
open warm sector by early afternoon, forced by a mix of warm-air
advection, low-level confluence, and subtly increasing large-scale
ascent. This activity should be ahead of the front and initially
discrete. The overall parameter space will be characterized by
strong to very strong buoyancy, moderate deep-layer vertical shear,
and strong low-level helicity. Supercells capable of all hazards are
expected, including large to very large (i.e. 3"+ hail), strong to
intense tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. Storm interactions are
expected to strongly influence the tornado risk, with the initially
discrete mode likely becoming messy quickly.

Farther west, other storms are likely to evolve quickly along the
front, developing into a band of severe thunderstorms that will push
east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend to
become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.

...KS/OK/MO...
A very unstable airmass is expected to develop along and ahead of
the triple point over south-central KS an associated cold front and
dryline. Strong low-level convergence will likely lead to initial
storm development near the triple point. This initial activity will
be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over
3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected
over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts
(60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely
boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado
risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and
potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk
remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a
conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX.

With time, upscale growth and the development of a
forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern
KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS.
Additionally, some QLCS tornado risk will exist within this line as
long as it stays ahead of the surging cold front. The front will
continue sweeping southeastward, with storms along this boundary
yielding a risk for wind/hail.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 04/17/2026

$$

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