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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0849

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 18 04:30:55 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 180430
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180430=20
    OKZ000-180630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0849
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

    Areas affected...Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...

    Valid 180430Z - 180630Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across much of
    Oklahoma for several more hours. Very large hail, wind damage and an
    isolated tornado threat will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar data from KTLX shows
    three areas of somewhat widely spaced severe storms. The most
    intense convection is located in western Oklahoma, along the eastern
    edge of a bullseye of moderate instability. The RAP has MLCAPE
    estimated in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, which appears to be
    related to a localized maximum in surface dewpoints. The storms are
    being supported by increasing low-level warm advection and to subtle perturbations within within west-southwesterly flow. The storms will
    continue to move eastward across central and eastern Oklahoma during
    the early overnight period. Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City
    and Tulsa have 0-6 km shear of 52 kt and 42 kt, respectively. The
    RAP is showing mid-level lapse rates above 8 C/km across much of
    central Oklahoma. This will support supercells with large hail. The
    most intense storms could also produce hailstones greater than 2
    inches in diameter. An isolated wind-damage and tornado threat may
    also accompany the stronger storms.

    ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5lFNOtijKXEN1DFSN19Hpo_-hPQDZ9xpcI6CUgIWGrLXluRTJSx1VpexBFfghaWcg-i0lGtYG= uwow_JAWe1v2Q0_HUY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34579644 34599806 34869881 35709901 36369836 36299590
    35559537 34849571 34579644=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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