ACUS11 KWNS 180041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180040=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-180245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0847
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Areas affected...Oklahoma...North Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 279...

Valid 180040Z - 180245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across part of
western, central and southeastern Oklahoma over the next few hours.
Large hail potentially over 2 inches in diameter, severe wind gusts,
and tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from KTLX shows
a supercell in southeast Oklahoma, and a second supercell near the
Red River. These severe storms are located near a bullseye in
instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg
range. In addition, the Fort Smith, AR WSR-88D VWP has a looping
hodograph, with strong directional shear in the low-levels, and 0-6
km shear near 50 knots. This environment will be favorable for
supercells, with tornado and large hail potential. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter be possible within the more
intense cores. Over the next hour, a storm merger will be possible
in southeast Oklahoma. Although it is uncertain how this will affect
the severe threat, a local increase in damaging winds will be
possible as the merger takes place.

Northwestward into parts of central and northwest Oklahoma,
short-term forecasts suggest that a small severe convective cluster
will form and progress eastward this evening, along and near the
warm front. For this reason, a threat for large hail and wind damage
is expected to develop in the northwestern part of the watch over
the next hour or two.

..Broyles.. 05/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4HgoV6doGkzR3h85Poh8ZWLCl85m5YUFiQMp73uohmncg27pGK-2x4O08kltVeGE7OpAiRYfh= B9PpFzskw5FxtNNmew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33929528 33669611 33819719 34139839 34779969 35359997
35899993 36299946 36369821 35579622 34779528 33929528=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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