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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0841

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 17 20:13:03 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 172012
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172012=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-172215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0841
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0312 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

    Areas affected...Southern Arkansas into northeast Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 172012Z - 172215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated thunderstorm or two may pose a large
    hail/damaging wind threat through late afternoon. Watch issuance is
    not expected.

    DISCUSSION...GOES 1-minute imagery shows building cumulus along a
    northward advancing warm front across north/northeastern LA.
    Multiple weak attempts at convective initiation have been noted over
    the past 20 minutes, but it remains unclear if sustained deep
    convection will become established. Locally enhanced convergence
    associated with the outflow of a decaying supercell to the southeast
    may promote adequate ascent for a storm or two within the next
    couple of hours. If a storm can become established, the convective
    environment (characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50 knots of
    effective shear) would support supercellular storm modes (this was
    demonstrated by a prior cell that produced 2.5 inch hail near
    Jackson, MS). Storm propagation to the southeast along the warm
    front/outflow boundary is likely with the potential for severe hail
    (possibly as large as 2.5 inches) and damaging gusts. Given the
    localized nature of this threat, watch issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9rnNgQPivmbnpJ47jFJW3BpW7kd2zPIgH_Or2nE_NjkXtoOZ0z8AQDrGrqWHv3Nbz4gC2IOCo= ZeP9DCSAGy8bCdIpRE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32639281 32899328 33129355 33439358 33649340 33619307
    33569298 33359250 33229203 33139165 33099124 33049108
    32769094 32479101 32269121 32089149 32059185 32639281=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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