ACUS11 KWNS 171832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171832=20
TXZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Areas affected...2central to southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171832Z - 172030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely based on recent
satellite trends, and will develop in an environment very conducive
for severe convection. Watch issuance is probable as thunderstorm coverage/intensity begins to increase.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows steadily growing
congestus along a confluence axis/differential heating boundary
draped from central TX to the Rio Grande and on the northern slopes
of the Sierra Del Carmen range in northern Mexico. Ahead of the
building cumulus field, high-quality moisture (dewpoints in the mid
70s) and temperatures warming into the low to mid 90s are supporting
MLCAPE values upwards of 3000 J/kg. Despite weak low-level winds,
increasing mid-level flow ahead of an approaching speed max is
supporting effective shear values on the order of 45 to 55 knots.
This convective environment is very favorable for organized
supercells and may support severe gusts and hail as large as 2 to 3
inches in diameter. Weak forcing for ascent casts some uncertainty
on storm coverage, but recent high-res guidance continues to suggest
rapid thunderstorm development is likely between 20-22 UTC both
along the boundary and off the northern Mexico mountains. Convective
trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance is probable
as deep convection begin to develop.

..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ZAVGjWZ_VU7xqspgsi5QDvREaBNsPRvyT_mvRs_oGSQK9ycirdp0_dFTllSiHWtOJZOjyLvz= VVKrrAd_c4qooE-q8Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29710143 31070032 31749947 31909895 31789848 31509813
31159803 30839807 30579821 30469832 30189866 29069998
28870030 28760048 28900066 29120076 29340098 29450116
29540133 29630148 29710143=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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