ACUS11 KWNS 170118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170118=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-170215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...Middle and Eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 170118Z - 170215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be need this evening for Middle and
Eastern Tennessee, as a line of supercell thunderstorms has
developed along a surface cold front and begun moving
east-southeastward. Potentially strong tornadoes, damaging winds of
60-80 MPH, and large hail are all possible with severe storms this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing severe thunderstorms extending from
southwestern Kentucky into northern Arkansas are expected to persist
and move southeastward into Middle and Eastern Tennessee this
evening. 00Z sounding data from OHX shows modest to strong low-level
shear, with 0-1 km SRH of 220 m^2/s^2, little to no remaining
capping, and a deep effective inflow layer -- all supportive of
supercells capable of producing tornadoes. However, with shear
vector components being largely boundary-parallel, and some recent
trends in upscale growth evident on radar, a transition from
isolated supercells to supercells embedded in a quasilinear
convective system is anticipated. As this transition occurs, the
threat will shift from tornadoes to a damaging wind threat, with
wind gusts of 60-80 MPH possible with the strongest thunderstorm
outflow. Any tornadoes that do develop have the potential to be
strong, and tornado watch issuance will be needed soon.

..Halbert/Gleason.. 05/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6PSRVk8w3-IV3D0iSnzTPCAi05wyplOoBuUY8zeXMTPcXMgm25mz44ihj0oQqvuzRU456pwbB= Y3x4kbQpikDkKH3W9g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 35858806 36388807 36608766 36598578 36608489 36558386
36538364 36498350 36408346 36338347 36158361 35668392
35368416 35128446 35128641 35148706 35168755 35388792
35858806=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)