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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0814

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 17:00:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161659
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161659=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-161900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0814
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1159 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachians

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

    Valid 161659Z - 161900Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe wind-driven large hail will be possible, amid
    several supercells that will likely move east across parts of the
    Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachians.

    DISCUSSION...A string of several supercells have evolved out of an
    earlier MCS, amid very strong deep-layer speed shear per area VWP
    data. The strongest supercell across Floyd to Pike counties in KY
    has had a wind-driven hail signature with its small-scale bowing
    structure and more pronounced MRMS MESH core. Upstream supercells,
    trailing to its west-southwest, may undergo a similar evolution
    given the ample buoyancy and greater than 60 kts of effective bulk
    shear. The 15Z HRRR appears to have a poor handle on downstream
    evolution of this activity given the established supercell
    structures heading into peak heating. Expectation is for a mix of
    wind/hail swaths to likely persist east and spread into southwest
    VA, as well as adjacent portions of TN/NC/WV. Tornado threat appears
    to be still limited by weak 0-1 km shear/SRH.

    ..Grams.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9r1Hhg8Imoia11PHKsAY1Hb6c0tORXeOqwyyiOO5MtLX8tuWb_GF0hYDRlLIqP_RJk4tGkELG= 2clGRog7FBgkpHMQVU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

    LAT...LON 37628270 37868085 37718006 37397985 37067989 36458025
    36318131 36448389 36528462 37348432 37628270=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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