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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0793

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 20:10:08 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 152008
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152007=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0793
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0307 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas into western
    Tennessee...far southeast Missouri...far southwestern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

    Valid 152007Z - 152130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storms may still reach severe limits, with
    damaging gusts and large hail the main concerns. These storms may
    persist downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252, so a local
    extension of the ongoing watch, or the issuance of a new downstream
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch, may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms (still possibly elevated) continue
    across AR amid a pronounced EML atop rich low-level moisture and
    strong deep-layer shear. As such, any storm cores that can intensify
    will continue to pose at least a severe hail threat. Severe gusts
    are also possible if ongoing storms can become surface based by
    either rooting into the boundary layer, or establishing a strong
    cold pool, which could lift surface-based parcels to the LFC along
    the cold pool leading edge. It remains uncertain if these storms
    have peaked in intensity or if greater severe potential exists
    downstream. As such, an eastward extension of the ongoing Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch, or the issuance of a new watch, may be needed
    pending favorable convective trends.

    ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8d8dugywvIDZUMyXkFW7AQWl1_ouIXu2BAC_2PkAGkkllAWeJkc1nl-RFt6uxlOhS5H3oAIMT= lBJtw2Iyl9LuRWHswk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 34939340 36199176 36989020 37528788 37338714 36848734
    36298804 35678882 35288982 35009097 34939340=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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