• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0789

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 18:43:15 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 151843
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151842=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-151945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0789
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0142 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Twin Cities Vicinity

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 251...

    Valid 151842Z - 151945Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 251 continues.

    SUMMARY...A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential is
    evident near the Twin Cities. Tornado potential, perhaps strong,
    will be focused here over the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells south of the Twin Cities is
    expected to continue northward. Low-level thermodynamics ahead of
    these storms continues to improve this afternoon with temperatures
    nearing 80 F. Given the backed surface winds, these supercells will
    have locally greater potential to produce a tornado. The VAD from
    KMPX has shown increasing 0-1 km SRH and objective mesoanalysis
    shows STP greater than 2. Mid-level lapse rates are also very steep
    per the 18Z MPX sounding. A strong tornado would be possible in this environment.

    ..Wendt.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4d6eZVYL9xSnuFyyeCKAQPbfYQp5G2JnGzI9n7eZxXh5CNP5a8M7KPcFZkwCwTkz_q-LhGPYS= deiwqGuv9WrZKON3RI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 44329346 44639374 44819391 44959395 45099380 45289337
    45279297 44979271 44609251 44259278 44099291 44049320
    44329346=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)