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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0781

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 00:42:25 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 150042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150042=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0781
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0742 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

    Areas affected...parts of northeast CO...southwest NE and northwest
    KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248...

    Valid 150042Z - 150215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms should continue eastward across
    WW248. Damaging winds and hail are likely. Local extensions of WW248
    will be needed.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0035 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
    cluster of severe storms stretching from southern and western NE,
    into northeastern CO and approaching northwest KS. Several reports
    of damaging winds and hail have been received with these storms over
    the past 2 hours. The severe risk is expected to continue this
    evening as storms gradually move eastward into increasingly more
    buoyant air near the north/south oriented stationary front. 45 kt of
    deep-layer shear and 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE will support storm
    organization with high-based supercell structures (ML LCL > 2500 M
    AGL) and linear clusters. CAM guidance and radar trends suggest
    additional upscale growth is likely with time as the low-level jet
    increases. Later tonight this may focus the severe risk
    northeastward into southern and central NE. Until then, a severe
    threat will persist across parts of Northwest KS and southern NE. A
    local extension of WW248 will likely be needed to cover the
    increasing risk for hail and damaging gusts this evening.

    ..Lyons.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_-15MAqnmW7-jSi8Aq_IxfyZzam9BaYm-8BGZYyBcmzurqhPY4rodbYWyTxsJRmGHhUlkbclU= vEb-0MSKLkCJNPfVWQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41290316 40950059 40070016 39460016 39260176 39290312
    41290316=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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