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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0597

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 29 05:52:56 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 290551
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290550=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-290745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0597
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

    Areas affected...far southern Kansas...much of northern
    Oklahoma...and small portions of the Texas Panhandle and southwest
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 290550Z - 290745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase in coverage along or
    possibly just ahead of the cold front as it pushes south from Kansas
    into Oklahoma and surrounding states. Locally damaging gusts and
    sporadic large hail will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...A cold front currently stretches from the OK Panhandle
    across south-central KS and into northwest MO, with elevated
    convection already forming in the HUT to P28 corridor. South of the
    front, a moist and unstable air mass remains in places with MLCAPE
    to 2000 J/kg.

    Winds aloft will remain nearly parallel to the cold front, and even
    the low-level jet will veer with time. As such, any initial cellular
    activity (producing hail) may tend to merge into an MCS. Such an MCS
    would move eastward with the mean wind, possibly producing damaging
    winds across northern OK and vicinity.

    ..Jewell/Mosier.. 04/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4z8tncluaGI8dx8LfGgbqD2p_7GbQOPtYe8Hee81DrOcvnXkwePLtta7IRnF5Yj7EPxq9sgTz= NBij_OdR9S4I56r9HY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 37129404 36699426 36459465 35939569 35749742 35509882
    35479990 35620023 36020035 36380019 36859971 37139910
    37519811 37829734 37979590 37899471 37589409 37129404=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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