• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0593

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 29 00:57:06 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 290056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290055=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0593
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0755 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

    Areas affected...North Kansas...northwest Missouri...southwest Iowa

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...

    Valid 290055Z - 290230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered supercells will continue this evening,
    especially across the southern half of ww183.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells have developed and oriented
    themselves along a corridor from near SLN-STJ. This activity has
    matured within a strongly sheared environment (0-6km), but only
    modest 0-3km SRH. 00z sounding from TOP suggests weak capping
    persists just above 850mb, but very steep lapse rates exist and
    large hail will continue to be generated within the more robust
    updrafts. Some increase in 850mb flow is expected over the next few
    hours, but the primary LLJ should focus across northern IL into the
    eastern U.P. of MI. This activity should spread northeast into
    northwest MO over the next several hours, just ahead of the surging
    cold front. While some additional convection may be generated along
    the synoptic boundary, the primary concern should be with the
    ongoing supercells.

    ..Darrow.. 04/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-aPnPQ_74TXZmu4_kwUAWiHf1gsL--Acj_s-CmHPoB2thDVyKiFuTfNM1r1ybL9SfVRwencfk= XMGZtKE6MtrD4g3G1k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 38879746 39759591 40859483 39969394 38639668 38879746=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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