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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0592

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 29 00:15:19 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 290014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290013=20
    TXZ000-290145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0592
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...

    Valid 290013Z - 290145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to pose a risk of very large
    hail, with an increasing tornado risk into this evening (00-02Z).

    DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete supercell clusters are tracking
    northeastward across northwest Texas this evening. These storms are
    evolving east of a dryline bulge, where temperatures have warmed
    into the 80s amid upper 60s to around 70 dewpoints -- beneath steep
    midlevel lapse rates. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per VWP
    data), characterized by a long/generally straight hodograph, should
    continue to favor a risk of very large hail. However, as the
    low-level jet increases over the next couple hours, clockwise-curved
    low-level hodographs should expand, favoring an increasing tornado
    risk -- especially as storms track northeastward toward the Red
    River through 02Z. Around of 300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH will
    conditionally support a strong tornado with any established
    right-moving supercells that evolve.

    ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ZJXuH4tdVtSb85SmSFwZwdciM9xZJSk0-NVVFc0ETfY_ubxHv7w7XlRttv0aZ7MB8SNS4f_L= k4JoB8dyZs44kHpdNY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

    LAT...LON 32470016 32680034 33790018 34189991 34299959 34229923
    34049892 33689885 33009895 32579931 32429964 32470016=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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