ACUS11 KWNS 282229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282229=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0589
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska...southeast South
Dakota...northwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 282229Z - 290000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this
evening. Some consideration is being given to a severe thunderstorm
watch.

DISCUSSION...Synoptic front is surging southeast across southeast
South Dakota early this evening. A pre-frontal confluence zone is
contributing to a corridor of high-based cumulus from central NE
into extreme northwest IA. Lightning is now being observed with
frontal convection west-north of ONL, and this activity is expected
to gradually intensify over the next few hours as it propagates
downstream along a zone of modest instability. Strong deep-layer
shear suggests some supercell potential, and hail will likely be the
primary concern, though steep boundary-layer lapse rates do favor
gusty winds. If this activity continues to increase in
coverage/intensity a severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted.

..Darrow/Gleason.. 04/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!787kygWHGruCDAyLXPjfNK2C9BLUkgSKJq05X-rhG1J_mswZOE3ZiR81FOel3TMG0eyllNKma= DNwQWBC0NZ7wPvZwc4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42919834 43359612 41969584 41709911 42919834=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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