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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0586

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 28 19:27:23 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 281926
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281925=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-282130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0586
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

    Areas affected...central/southeast MN...western WI...northern IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 281925Z - 282130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through late
    afternoon. All severe hazards, including tornadoes (some strong),
    very large hail (to 3 inch diameter) and damaging gusts (to 70 mph)
    are possible.

    DISCUSSION...A line of convection along a surface front across
    southwest MN into northwest IA will continue to shift east/northeast
    this afternoon. Ahead of this convection, the downstream airmass
    across central/southeast MN, northern IA and western WI continues to
    moisten and destabilize. Surface dewpoints have increased into the
    low to mid 60s as far north as the Minneapolis metro area, with
    upper 50s to near 60 F to the north and east. Continued northward
    moisture transport on a 50+ kt low level jet should continue to aid
    in further destabilization over the next few hours as large-scale
    ascent overspreads the region.=20

    Region VWP data from KMPX/KDMX/KARX already show impressive vertical
    shear favorable for supercells. Enlarged, curved low-level
    hodographs amid the strengthening low-level jet is aiding in 0-1 km
    SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. As weak MLCIN continues to erode,
    convection moving into this environment is likely to become better
    organized, with an increase in storm coverage expected into northern
    IA. Intense convection is expected to move across the MCD from late
    this afternoon into this evening, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
    A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-8z9KVdClP0qKp2uhTPuaZcf9agPZYL02IlnRlbDfyFNO1CIZl7LmmKt01R-m-bLZlHQq2nVs= azS6KZLWKcZkPaBVuw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42299364 42419255 42649166 42859095 43209086 44389096
    45279158 45589193 45799230 45909268 45879316 45779350
    45579402 45119422 44129443 42629478 42519477 42349412
    42299364=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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