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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0585

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 28 15:42:12 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 281542
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281541=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-281745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0585
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1041 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

    Areas affected...far eastern SD...southwest MN...northwest IA...far
    northeast NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281541Z - 281745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated convection may develop over the next couple of
    hours from far eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota,
    northwest Iowa, and possibly northeast Nebraska. Large hail and
    damaging gusts would be initial risk, though a tornado risk also
    could increase with time/eastern extent. Area is being monitored for
    possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite/Day Cloud Phase RGB shows
    deepening cumulus developing along the surface boundary extending
    southward across eastern SD into northeast NE. Ahead of this
    boundary, broken cloudiness has allowed for filtered heating, and
    temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to low 70s F. Meanwhile,
    a corridor of mid 60s F surface dewpoints is overspreading the
    region. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis and modified RAP forecast soundings
    suggest MLCIN has eroded, though warmer temperatures at 700 mb
    remain, which may limit instability through the 850-700 mb layer in
    the short term. Initial convection may tend to be somewhat elevated,
    though could become surface-based with time and eastward extent.=20

    Hi-Res CAMs are fairly inconsistent this morning, but generally
    suggest that convection will increase ahead of the surface
    low/southward trailing boundary in the next couple of hours. Given
    favorable shear, with enlarged and favorable curved low-level
    hodographs already in place amid moderate MLCAPE, convection could
    develop rapidly once large-scale ascent increases toward
    midday/early afternoon. Initial activity may favor large hail and
    damaging gusts early in convective evolution, with an increasing
    tornado risk with time/eastward extent. Timing for convective
    initiation and initial coverage is a bit uncertain, but trends are
    being monitored and a watch may need to be issued in the next 1-2
    hours.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!96Xbj-f96p0nDsFvnG5hftpZYWSUv8z0MIKVvpwf0lCKq9JK6H_rrTUu3IzNk89vd9KRUKycR= ezWLaKMNBSznFya6Nk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

    LAT...LON 43099782 44979694 45249674 45369652 45479614 45479576
    45269532 44909523 44219503 43319488 42859504 42519536
    42269607 42219634 42159708 42189767 42339802 42619804
    43099782=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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